According to a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018, Russia aimed to transport 80 million tons of goods through the Arctic seas by 2024 and increase that to 200 million tons by 2030. However, with the recent challenges posed by the war initiated by Russia, these figures have become unattainable. The situation reveals a stark contrast to earlier projections, illustrating the broader ramifications of geopolitical tensions on Russia's shipping ambitions.

In 2025, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) saw a total of 37.02 million tons of cargo transported, reflecting a 2.3% decrease compared to the previous year, as reported by the Gekon Center and quoted by the newspaper "Kommiersant." The NSR, which spans 5,600 kilometers and crosses five Arctic seas, offers a travel time reduction of 7-10 days to Asia compared to the traditional route via the Suez Canal. Despite the potential speed advantages, there remains a limited interest in using the Arctic route for cargo transport, primarily due to the ongoing geopolitical instability.

Additionally, Russian exports constituted the majority of cargo transported via Arctic seas in 2025, accounting for 60% or approximately 22.2 million tons. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), crude oil, and gas condensate made up 83% of the total transported goods. This dependence on specific types of cargo raises questions about the sustainability and future growth potential of Arctic shipping, especially in light of international sanctions and trade dynamics influenced by regional conflicts.