An exit poll indicates that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to secure enough seats to maintain an outright majority in the recent House of Representatives election.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan is projected to win at least 274 seats in the House of Representatives election held on October 8, indicating a clear path to an outright majority of 233 seats as per NHK's exit polls. This victory is attributed to the strategic moves of the right-wing Prime Minister Sanae Takaiichi, which has invigorated the coalition government, potentially leading to over 300 total seats for the ruling coalition. The exit polls revealed that the LDP's maximum probable seat count could reach up to 328 out of 465 total seats, underscoring a significant victory for the ruling party and its aligned coalition partner, the Japan Restoration Party.
Prime Minister Takaiichi had previously stated that she would resign if the ruling coalition did not exceed half of the seats, but the latest projections suggest this target has been comfortably achieved. The LDP and Japan Restoration Party together crossed the threshold for a majority only after drawing in independent members. Since regaining power in 2012, the LDP has maintained a governing majority through four House elections, but faced challenges in the last two years under former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leading to a less stable government environment.
In contrast, opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, who united to form a new centrist coalition, are projected to receive 37 to 91 seats, indicating a notable defeat when compared to their earlier combined total of 172 seats. The conservative opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, is expected to secure between 18 and 35 seats while also facing criticism for its stance on nationalism, further indicating a challenging path forward for the opposition in the changing political landscape of Japan.
