Experts from NATO and the German military have participated in a simulation organized by Die Welt to explore a hypothetical Russian invasion of Europe. The scenario specifically revolves around the Russian invasion of Marijampolė, Lithuania, justified by a humanitarian crisis in the nearby Kaliningrad region. Despite the gravity of the situation, several European countries would reportedly hesitate to intervene, and there are serious implications regarding the US's commitment to European defense, especially under a potential Trump presidency.

Military analyst Jörgen Elfving emphasized that in a real situation, historical precedents might lead to a lack of decisive intervention, creating a dilemma for European nations caught between a desire for security and the risks of escalating conflict with Russia. The simulation drew on the expertise of 16 former officials from NATO and the German armed forces, along with insights from various political and military analysts, to probe potential responses and outcomes.

The implications of such scenarios are profound, as they highlight the fragile state of European security and the complexities of international alliances in the face of aggression. The exercise served not only as a warning but also as a means to foster dialogue about the necessity of preparedness and strategic responses to prevent further escalations in Eastern Europe.