Grain Market: An Income of Foreign Currency with Surprises
Argentina saw a surprising inflow of $1.85 billion in foreign exchange in January, primarily fueled by increased exports of wheat and barley, despite a dip in projected exports for February.
In January, Argentina's grain market recorded a surprising inflow of $1.85 billion in foreign exchange, which was significant not only for its size but also for the specifics of the contributing products. The month saw a notable rise in the shipments of wheat and barley, alongside continued exports of corn and industrialized soy products. The export declarations for wheat, known as DJVE’s, reached almost 9 million tons during the December to February period, indicating a strong export trend despite a projected decline for February.
Furthermore, January’s DJVE’s for wheat were particularly telling, with 4.56 million tons recorded in December, followed by 3.98 million tons in January. However, February is expected to see a steep drop to just 420,000 tons. This fluctuation can be attributed to market adjustments and supply chain dynamics. Importantly, these DJVE's represent about 50% of Argentina's estimated exportable surplus of 18 million tons, highlighting the critical role of the grain sector in the national economy.
One surprising aspect of these exports has been the sales of wheat to China, which were finalized at the end of 2022. This development suggests a potential strengthening of trade relationships with large international markets. Such trends not only affect local farmers and exporters but also play a significant role in stabilizing Argentina's economy amid various challenges, including inflation and trade imbalances, by boosting its foreign currency reserves and providing impetus to agricultural sectors.