As diplomatic efforts strive to avert military confrontation between the United States and Iran, Pakistan is highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to the fallout of this conflict. Concerns have been raised about a 'catastrophic scenario' that could unleash chaos in Pakistan, as noted by Eldar Mamadov in an article for National Interest. Mamadov, a Latvian foreign policy expert, warns that any military strike on Iran could destabilize the Iranian regime, while simultaneously igniting unrest in the troubled province of Balochistan, affording militant groups an opportunity to reshape the landscape of terrorist threats in the region.

Mamadov emphasizes that rising calls in Washington for ethnic divisions within Iran pose a significant risk, labeling it a 'gamble' that could backfire against U.S. interests in the region. The implications of fracturing Iran are dire, as it could lead to a significant legal vacuum that armed groups may exploit. This could increase the number of terrorist threats not only within Pakistan but also potentially extend to the wider region, further exacerbating security challenges for Pakistani authorities.

Given Pakistan's geopolitical importance and the intricate web of relations it maintains with both Iran and the United States, the article suggests that Islamabad must navigate these tensions carefully. The risk of spillover violence from any U.S. military action against Iran could reignite longstanding conflicts within Pakistan itself and destabilize the broader South Asian landscape, placing additional pressure on an already strained security apparatus.