The tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have evolved from mere border skirmishes along the Durand Line to a profound security crisis that reshapes the dynamics of their bilateral relations. Over the past two years, Islamabad faces challenging choices in its approach to the new reality following the Taliban's return to power in Kabul. Recent airstrikes by the Pakistani military inside Afghan territory and the Taliban's military responses indicate that the relationship has entered a phase of structural confrontation, moving beyond tactical responses to deeper strategic conflicts regarding influence and control over cross-border militancy.

Since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, Pakistan has attempted to leverage military, economic, and political tools to persuade Kabul to curb the activities of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has intensified its attacks within Pakistan's borders. However, reports from the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan indicate that some of these Pakistani strikes have resulted in civilian casualties, further inflaming anti-Pakistan sentiments in Afghanistan and constraining the Taliban's political maneuverability.

As both sides grapple with the increasing complexity of their interactions, the article illustrates how Pakistan is betting on exerting pressure on Kabul to control the TTP, but this strategy may provoke further hostility rather than cooperation. The long-term viability of these approaches will be crucial in assessing the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, especially in a context where both countries' interests increasingly diverge amid a backdrop of broader regional tensions.