Mar 23 • 09:17 UTC 🇰🇷 Korea Hankyoreh (KR)

Can Trump’s Threat to Devastate Iran’s Power Network Be Realized?

Donald Trump's warning to destroy Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened within 48 hours has led to increased scrutiny on the structure and resilience of Iran's power grid.

U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz has drawn attention to Iran's heavily reliant and widely dispersed electricity generation system. Reports indicate that over 95% of Iran's power production is derived from thermal power plants, with around 130 in operation across the country, contributing a total capacity of 78,000 MW. This diverse distribution of power plants suggests that incapacitating Iran's power infrastructure would require extensive military engagement rather than a focused assault.

The capital region such as Tehran is predominantly served by the large Damavand power plant, along with four other major plants, which makes it a significant target yet strategically complex due to its sprawling nature. The Damavand plant, for instance, spans over a 200-hectare area–thirty times larger than Tehran's Azadi Square. To completely neutralize it, simultaneous and precise strikes would need to be executed, emphasizing that even destroying major plants would yield only minor losses in Iran's overall power capacity, as the loss of a single plant would only account for roughly 3.7% of the total production.

Moreover, Iran's power network is characterized by extensive infrastructure, including approximately 133,000 kilometers of high and medium-voltage transmission systems and over 130,000 kilometers of overall wiring. The system is supported by nearly 857,000 transformers and several large and medium-sized substations. While strikes on substations may cause temporary disruptions, the quick restoration capabilities of the infrastructure highlight the resilience of Iran's power grid against selective military attacks. The restoration successes during previous conflicts, such as the quick recovery from explosions in substations in Tehran and Karaj, further demonstrate the challenges faced in executing a military campaign targeting Iran’s power system effectively.

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