Chinese experts believe that a U.S.-China summit will not directly lead to renewed U.S.-North Korea dialogue, but see potential for discussions during the upcoming APEC meeting in November.
Chinese international relations scholars have expressed skepticism regarding the possibility of immediate dialogue resuming between the U.S. and North Korea following the U.S.-China summit. They anticipate that the focus of this summit will likely be on bilateral issues between the U.S. and China, rather than on the Korean Peninsula. However, they also noted that if a minimum consensus is reached regarding the improvement of the situation on the Korean Peninsula and discussions on a peace regime, the APEC summit planned for November 2023 in Shenzhen, China, could serve as a potential 'window of opportunity' for U.S.-North Korea contact.
The conversations were part of the 'Korea-China Strategic Dialogue 2026' held on September 21 in Shanghai, where Korean and Chinese experts deliberated on the bilateral relations and the Korean Peninsula situation. While the Chinese participants mostly remained pessimistic about the prospect of North Korea-U.S. talks, they acknowledged that relation dynamics could shift if substantive talks arise during the APEC summit. Korean experts, on the other hand, emphasized the necessity of establishing a negotiation framework and safeguards following the summits over merely the meetings themselves.
In addressing Korea-China relations, scholars from both sides recognized some improvement following two recent summits. They raised concerns about the sustainability of this improvement if it fails to translate into tangible outcomes. Korean experts are cautiously optimistic about the signs of restored political trust and exchanges, while discussions continue to involve sensitive issues, such as maritime structures in the Yellow Sea, reflecting an evolving and complex dynamic in regional diplomacy.
