According to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are preparing for a planned offensive in the spring and summer of 2026, aiming at what is known as the 'fortified belt' in Ukraine, which constitutes a crucial defense line in the Donetsk region. The report contains assessments that suggest capturing this fortified area may prove challenging for Russian troops in 2026, as the analysts at ISW indicate that while certain tactical gains could be achieved, they would come at the immense cost of casualties for the Russian side.

The report cites an incident on March 19, during a mechanized assault, where Russian forces reportedly lost 405 soldiers out of more than 500 involved. This high level of casualties was highlighted as unsustainable and is likely to severely hinder Russia’s capability to conduct large-scale operations in both the medium and long term. The ISW stresses that such losses not only signify current operational failures but also impact future military strategies and operations within the context of the ongoing conflict.

In addition to military assessments, the report also mentioned a drone strike in Zaporizhzhia that resulted in the deaths of a man and a woman, while their daughter was rescued from the rubble. Concurrently, nearly 30 drones were reported to have been shot down over Moscow and its surrounding areas on March 20-21, indicating a heightened state of conflict and the ongoing threat of drone warfare in the region. This situation underscores the volatile environment as the conflict continues and the implications it has for the region's stability and the humanitarian impacts on civilians caught in the crossfire.