Journalist Abdul Qadir Fayez argues that Iran perceives the ongoing war as an existential threat, leading them to reject ceasefire proposals due to fears of loss of regional deterrence.
In a recent interview, Iranian affairs analyst Abdul Qadir Fayez discussed the distinct existential perspective that Iran adopts towards the ongoing conflict, which starkly contrasts with that of Israel, the United States, and Arab states. He emphasized that for Tehran, the only possible outcomes are the survival or collapse of the Islamic Republic, with no middle ground to consider. This existential viewpoint drives Iran's refusal to accept any ceasefire proposals, as they fear such an action could lead to a 'moment of exposure', wherein their ability to maintain regional deterrence and influence in the Middle East would be significantly undermined.
Fayez elaborated on the concept of 'Iranian influence', which was previously supported by Iran's strategic partnerships in regions like Syria and with Hezbollah. However, these relationships have weakened, and Iran's loss of control over certain factions has led to a significant decline in its regional power. In response, the Iranian regime has attempted to pivot towards a 'deterrent Iran' model, increasingly relying on missile capabilities. Nonetheless, recent developments have considerably weakened this deterrent concept, creating a precarious balance for Tehran in the conflict.
As Fayez pointed out, the nature of this war has evolved; it is no longer just a confrontation with the United States or Israel but has intricate layers that affect Iran's regional and domestic policy. The Iranian leadership's perception of continuing hostilities is now intertwined with their very survival, complicating the situation further and raising dire implications for both regional stability and international relations in the Middle East.
