Mar 20 • 13:00 UTC 🇨🇳 China South China Morning Post

Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Many military analysts are sceptical

Military analysts express skepticism about the US's ability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflict and attacks on shipping.

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping channel for global oil supply, has seen its traffic plummet due to the US-Israeli military actions against Iran that began on February 28. Military experts are doubtful that airstrikes or a small ground troop presence will be sufficient to eliminate the threats to commercial shipping in this strategic area. Prior to the conflict, an average of 100 ships navigated the strait daily, but this number has drastically decreased to only 89 ships, including just 16 oil tankers, for the period from March 1 to 15.

Amid this ongoing crisis, oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where the recent reports indicated that vessel traffic had dwindled to zero at one point. This unprecedented halt in shipping is alarming, as the strait is essential for transporting approximately 20% of the world's oil. The region has witnessed over 20 ships suffering attacks since hostilities erupted, raising the stakes for commercial interests and regional security.

Chinese analysts highlight that the current military strategy might not adequately address the complexities of reopening the strait, suggesting that the situation could worsen if attacks on shipping continue. The implications of ongoing insecurity in this vital waterway extend beyond immediate oil supply disruptions; they impact global economic stability and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, with potential repercussions for international relations involving the US and Iran.

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