The war involving Iran is causing disruptions in fertilizer shipments and escalating energy prices, which threaten to trigger another wave of food price increases in vulnerable developing countries. This situation is particularly alarming as many nations are still recovering from successive global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which had already destabilized food and fuel markets. The looming crisis could lead to long-term setbacks for these economies, making it increasingly difficult for households to meet their basic food needs.

Developing countries had recently seen notable improvements and attracted investments; however, the conflict centered around Iran is jeopardizing these advances. The potential fallout from this situation includes a prolonged struggle for families trying to secure their nutritional necessities, prompting fears of a wider economic impact. According to Odile Renaud-Basso, President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the effects on prices and overall food availability could be significant as the situation unfolds.

Furthermore, as highlighted by Moody's Managing Director Mary Diron, while food and fuel account for a lesser portion of the consumer price index in developed economies, they constitute a much larger share—between 30% and 50%—in many emerging markets. This discrepancy suggests that developing countries will bear the brunt of the anticipated price increases, potentially leading to heightened inflation and economic instability across a range of sectors in these regions.