Iran has entered a new phase with the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the leader of the Islamic Republic. Despite the prevailing impressions of destabilization, the regime does not appear to be collapsing; rather, it is shrinking and reorganizing around a smaller, more security-focused core of power. This evolving dynamic suggests the formation of a 'residual regime' as the government adapts to current challenges.

The new Supreme Leader began his tenure with a provocative message, asserting that the Strait of Hormuz would continue to serve as leverage against the West. However, behind this rhetoric lies a more substantive reality—the Islamic Republic is not disintegrating but instead contracting into a tighter, security-centered system that increasingly resembles a residual regime. This indicates a shift in governance, prioritizing security measures over broader political engagement.

In his first public intervention, delivered through a written statement read on state television, Mojtaba Khamenei emphasized that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz must persist as a tool for pressure against Iran's adversaries. This stance reflects a strategy focused on maintaining a degree of regional leverage while managing internal and external pressures, highlighting the regime's intent to adapt and endure despite facing considerable challenges both domestically and internationally.