In a recent interview, Iranian political researcher Matsunaga Yasuaki addressed the complexities surrounding the Iranian regime following an unexpected attack that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He emphasized that the goal of the United States and Israel to forcibly change Iran's regime is fraught with difficulty, primarily due to the regime's strong foundational support. He argued that Iran will naturally exercise its right to defense against such unjust attacks and pointed out the invalidity of unilateral military aggression under international law. Thus, Iran is likely to continue its steadfast resistance to external pressures.

Matsunaga highlighted the evolving military structure of Iran, particularly with the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) following Khamenei's death. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, while positioned to lead, lacks the credibility of a traditional religious leader or scholar and remains largely a product of the IRGC's influence. His inability to control the Guard carries significant implications for Iran's domestic and military politics. According to Matsunaga, the absence of checks on the IRGC could lead to increasingly aggressive stances as they drive national policies without restraint.

Lastly, concerning the stability of the regime, Matsunaga expressed skepticism about the capability of the IRGC to be completely dismantled, thus implying that the regime, although facing external pressures and internal challenges, remains resilient. He noted that the market dynamics in Iran could be influenced by these military and political developments, revealing an intricate relationship between Iran's defensive posture and its economic stability. For now, while the regime appears robust, there are underlying tensions that could play a pivotal role in shaping its future.