On September 18, 2024, the dollar started trading with significant focus on the events of 'Super Wednesday,' when crucial interest rate decisions were anticipated from both Brazil and the United States. Investors are watching carefully, as the Brazilian market expects a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic rate, which would lower it to 14.75% per annum. If this cut is enacted, it would mark the first reduction in nearly two years since May 2024.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve in the United States is predicted to keep interest rates unchanged. The backdrop of this financial decision-making is the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, with economists expressing concerns about the local and global impacts that could arise depending on how long the conflict lasts. This ongoing situation is further complicating the economic landscape, particularly in relation to oil prices, which are under pressure due to the conflict.

Overall, the interconnectedness of local economic decisions and international geopolitical tensions is creating a complex environment for investors. As they navigate the uncertain terrain, the potential impacts of changes in interest rates and the duration of the Middle Eastern war remain focal points for financial markets both in Brazil and worldwide.