On January 17, the World Food Programme (WFP) released a warning stating that if hostilities between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran persist until June, roughly 45 million more people globally will encounter food insecurity. Rising prices are pointed out as a chief contributor to the crisis, particularly impacting countries in Africa and Asia which heavily rely on imported food and fuel. The WFP highlights that due to potential closures in the Strait of Hormuz and increased risks in maritime transport across the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea, the costs of transporting food, fuel, and fertilizers have already seen significant surges.

The WFP elaborates on additional projections, emphasizing that if the conflict continues without resolution, particularly with oil prices holding above $100 per barrel, the global implications would be severe. They estimate an increase of 45 million people who would fall into the category of 'acute food insecurity'—a situation classified as Phase 3 or higher on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale. This phase suggests that those affected might have to liquidate their assets to obtain food, raising the global total of those experiencing such conditions to approximately 360 million.

This alarming forecast is being described as reaching 'historic levels' of food insecurity. The WFP's statements reflect not only the immediate humanitarian concerns but also point to how geopolitical tensions over oil can have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond the immediate conflict zones, affecting global supply chains and food security in vulnerable countries.