The conflict between the U.S. and Iran that began in late February has become a black hole for financial markets, absorbing various other variables and creating increased volatility, particularly in South Korea. The article explores the complexity of whether war poses a risk or opportunity for investors, noting that the answer varies depending on factors like investment duration and the parties involved. One of the fundamental characteristics of war is its combination of irrationality and unpredictability, suggesting that sudden decisions can drastically change circumstances.*

Historically, wars have often led to long-term opportunities despite short-term declines. The immediate impact of such conflicts typically includes heightened uncertainty, which dampens investor sentiment and exacerbates price surges in raw materials. However, over time, unless a war leads to the total collapse of economic activity, the uncertainties it generates tend to be absorbed into market prices, allowing for a stabilization and adaptation to risks. Previous conflicts such as the Gulf War showed that stock markets often began to recover within one or two months post-crisis, suggesting a potential trend for resilience in economic recovery.*

Nevertheless, the current geopolitical landscape—particularly the significance of Iran in the global energy sector, its strategic positioning, and the backdrop of U.S.-China rivalry—could mean this particular conflict might have deeper ramifications than past experiences. Additionally, given that major countries have struggled with inflation for several years, prolonged warfare could shift inflation concerns towards stagflation risks. South Korea's unique market conditions, such as dependence on imported energy and significant exposure to export-driven sectors like semiconductors and information technology, further illustrate how the war's shockwaves could simultaneously impact oil prices, exchange rates, and global demand, complicating the financial outlook for investors.