On January 3, 2026, the United States executed a military operation in Venezuela that led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro. This marked a significant change in U.S. foreign policy, which was further emphasized when, less than two months later, the U.S. and Israel initiated a war against Iran, resulting in hundreds of thousands of casualties and a severe disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict also saw a substantial spike in global oil prices by 40%. These events illustrate a profound shift in international relations away from political diplomacy and towards a reliance on maximum force.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Richard Juan, Director of the Global Issues and International Institutions Program at the International Crisis Group, analyzed the relationship between these two occurrences. He argued that the relatively weak international response to former President Donald Trump's actions in Venezuela demonstrated to Washington that it could effectively breach international law without facing significant consequences. Additionally, he suggested that the success of the operations in Venezuela emboldened Trump to take even greater risks in his international dealings.

Juan also posits that the current U.S. administration has moved towards using raw power rather than diplomatic persuasion to shape international diplomacy. This suggests a broader trend where military might is prioritized over negotiation and dialogue, fundamentally altering how global interactions are structured and raising concerns about the future of diplomatic practices.