"Like the Iran-Iraq War Once": The Conflict Reduces Pressure on Economic Problems and Strengthens the Role of the Revolutionary Guards
Iran's Revolutionary Guards view the ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel as a unifying national struggle that alleviates pressure on the regime to tackle Iran's rising economic woes.
Recent reports indicate that commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards believe that the current conflict with the United States and Israel serves as a unifying national cause, helping to lessen the internal pressure on the regime to address Iran's escalating economic issues. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Revolutionary Guards see this situation as reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq War, when national solidarity was paramount. A source knowledgeable about the matter shared insights with an opposition media outlet, Iran Wire, highlighting that a Revolutionary Guard official recently informed President Masoud Pezeshkian that recent airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel have rallied Iranian citizens around their national flag.
Further discussions during a meeting involving President Pezeshkian focused on the Revolutionary Guards' strategies for post-war economic recovery. However, the president cautioned that this mindset, which fosters unity in the face of external threats, may dangerously equate to planning for increased suppression of dissent within Iran. The emphasis on rallying the population around nationalism could also signal an intent to divert attention from internal economic struggles and civil discontent, as the regime faces increasing economic challenges exacerbated by sanctions and reduced oil revenues.
Overall, this perspective of utilizing external conflict to consolidate power suggests that the Iranian regime may prioritize military responses over constructive economic policies, with potential implications for Iranian society, which might experience a further clampdown on freedoms and expressions of discontent as the government seeks to maintain stability amid adversity.