Since the beginning of the war in Iran, global prices for urea and other nitrogen fertilizers have surged by 40%, with concerns emerging about potential food price increases similar to those observed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when food prices in Slovakia rose by approximately one-third. The Gulf countries are pivotal producers and exporters of fertilizers, making these price fluctuations particularly significant for European agriculture.

Despite these alarming trends, European food prices are not anticipated to experience a sharp rise in the near future. Currently, the market is experiencing an oversupply of food, and many farmers had already secured the fertilizers needed for spring planting. This indicates a certain resilience in the European food supply chain, insulating it somewhat from the immediate effects of the Iranian conflict.

However, rising prices of fuel may offset these benefits, potentially raising the costs that farmers face in their operations and, consequently, affecting the overall food pricing. While the immediate outlook for food prices appears stable, the interconnectedness of global commodity markets suggests that agricultural sectors must prepare for ongoing volatility resulting from geopolitical tensions.