BBVA Research has projected that Spain's economy is set to grow by 2.4% in 2023, highlighting its resilience amidst rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to their analysis, the current economic cycle in Spain is strong, allowing it to withstand international market volatility caused by conflicts such as the one in Iran. The institution assesses that the expected impact from these geopolitical events will be temporary, primarily due to Spain's robust economic foundation which is set to absorb external shocks effectively.

Furthermore, BBVA Research predicts that inflation in Spain will settle at 2.9% by the end of the year. This stability in the inflation rate reinforces the outlook for Spain's economic growth, suggesting a strong recovery phase supported by positive fundamentals. The research points out that as long as the conflict remains limited in duration, Spain should continue to navigate these challenges effectively.

Despite the optimistic forecasts, the report does caution that the country faces potential supply shocks that might have a broader global impact, particularly affecting energy supplies. As Spain positions itself amidst these uncertainties, the balance between anticipated growth and external pressures will be crucial for sustaining its economic trajectory in the coming months.