The article examines the early economic ramifications of the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, highlighting concerns that if the conflict extends, it could trigger a global rise in prices reminiscent of the post-pandemic era and the invasion of Ukraine. There is a notable focus on the implications that such price movements could have on electoral outcomes around the world, including in Brazil, where economic stability often influences voting behavior.

While the world currently has an ample supply of oil and is less dependent on it than in the past, there are still significant logistical challenges. For instance, approximately 20% of the global oil production passes through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which has been subject to closures. Such disruptions could lead to increased commodity prices, affecting the overall economy, including essential goods like locally produced food, highlighting the interconnectedness of energy prices and everyday consumer costs.

Additionally, the political landscape has shifted over time, affecting how re-election candidates are perceived. Historically, political scientists agreed that incumbent candidates had an advantage, but this view may be evolving as external factors (like the prices of essential goods influenced by global conflicts) come into play, potentially reshaping voters’ preferences and the political strategies of those in power. This underscores the intricate relationship between international relations, economic stability, and local political dynamics.