A recent discussion held in Riga, organized by the East European Policy Research Centre, focused on the influence of sanctions imposed by Western nations on Belarus and Russia due to the latter's invasion of Ukraine. Experts noted that the political actions of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko are heavily influenced by decisions made by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The sanctions aim to restrict financial resources for the Belarusian regime and diminish its repressive capacities.

While acknowledging that the sanctions have negatively impacted Belarus's economy and reduced state revenues, opposition representatives and experts highlighted a counterbalancing effect: the increasing influence of Russia in Belarus. This is exacerbated by closer military and security cooperation between the two nations, which allows Russia to further entrench its presence and authority over Belarus.

Furthermore, experts warned that any signals of a possible easing of sanctions could have detrimental effects. Such a move could embolden the Belarusian regime and signal a lack of commitment from the West in maintaining pressure on aggressive states. The discussion underlines the ongoing challenges in addressing the geopolitical ramifications of current sanctions and the need for continued international scrutiny and potential reinforcement of these measures against Belarusian and Russian actions.