In a recent discussion on the program "Mawazin," strategic thinker Abdullah Al-Nafisi asserted that the goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime is not feasible because the regime has deeply entrenched institutional structures. He highlighted that the objectives of military action against Iran extend beyond mere direct strikes, aiming instead at a comprehensive reshaping of power dynamics in the Middle East. Al-Nafisi drew contrasts between the ambitions of U.S. President Donald Trump, who seeks international domination and aims to undermine China by controlling Iranian oil, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose focus is directed towards neutralizing Iran’s influence in the regional balance of power, targeting its nuclear program and disrupting its regional proxies like Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Al-Nafisi emphasized that the notion of toppling the Iranian regime is unrealistic, suggesting that both American and Israeli officials understand this reality as well. His analysis indicates that the Iranian system has institutionalized itself since the revolution, allowing it to maintain state continuity and resilience against external attempts to destabilize or eliminate it. He pointed out that the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader aligns with this institutional stability, reflecting the regime’s readiness to withstand challenges and adapt to ongoing pressures.

This strategic perspective raises questions about the feasibility of any direct military intervention intended to dismantle the Iranian regime. Al-Nafisi's insights could indicate a stagnation in U.S. and Israeli strategies in the region, as they may need to rethink their approaches in light of the enduring resilience of the Iranian state and the complex web of alliances and hostilities that characterize Middle Eastern geopolitics.