The Pernambuco Agency of Waters and Climate (Apac) has issued a warning for moderate to heavy rainfall for Fernando de Noronha, effective from the evening of Friday, the 13th, and extending into Saturday, the 14th. This forecast is significant as it anticipates continued rainfall throughout the weekend, which is crucial for the island's ecological balance and tourism activities. Despite the foreseen rain, the agency noted that precipitation levels in Noronha have been below historical averages so far this January.

Historically, Fernando de Noronha sees an average rainfall of 67.4 millimeters in January; however, in January 2026, the island recorded a meager 30.1 mm of rain, marking a worrying 55.3% reduction from the historical average. Furthermore, the agency indicates that the trend of lower-than-expected rainfall continues into February, where the historical average is 76.8 mm, but only 29.6 mm was reported this year, reflecting a significant deficit of 61.4%.

As for March, the situation appears similar, with an expected historical average of 165.9 millimeters; up to the 9th of the month, only 60.5 mm have been recorded, indicating a deficit of approximately 63.5%. These patterns could indicate broader climatic changes affecting rainfall distribution in the region, potentially impacting local ecosystems and water supply, which could also have implications for tourism and local infrastructure in Fernando de Noronha. This situation warrants careful monitoring by local authorities and residents alike to prepare for the expected rains and manage water resources effectively.