The latest IBRiS poll for Onet reveals that the Civic Coalition (KO) is currently the preferred choice for 31.8% of Polish voters if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday. The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is in second place, garnering 24.2% of the vote, while the right-wing Confederation stands at 14.2%. Other parties, such as the Confederation of the Polish Crown and the Left, trail behind with lower support levels. Interestingly, a notable 7.3% of respondents are undecided regarding their voting preferences.

If these polling results were to translate into actual election outcomes, the KO could potentially secure 180 seats in the Sejm. Conversely, PiS would acquire 144 seats, Confederation 78, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown 37. The Left would gain 21 seats. Despite leading the poll, the Civic Coalition may face significant challenges in forming a government, given the need to create a coalition potentially with the Left, which could prove difficult given diverse political stances.

This polling scenario presents a "black scenario" for Donald Tusk, the leader of KO, as it highlights the precariousness of coalition-forming in a divided political landscape. The evident shift in voter sentiment coupled with the uncertainties that lie ahead could have profound implications for the upcoming parliamentary elections, as party leaders strategize around potential alliances.