The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to an immediate increase in commodity prices, posing a significant threat to economic growth globally. Experts are predicting that if the war in Iran persists for several months, it could trigger a new wave of inflation worldwide. In the case of Slovakia, analysts predict a downturn, warning that the Slovak economy could fall into recession, especially if the conflict extends beyond a short duration.

While a brief war might result in minimal impact on Slovakia's economy, the scenario changes dramatically with a prolonged conflict. Experts indicate that if the conflict lasts for about six months or longer, the consequences could be even more severe than those experienced during the financial crisis of 2022. They estimate that inflation in Slovakia could rise significantly, potentially reaching 5 to 6 percent, and the public finance deficit could deepen beyond 5 percent of GDP.

Martin Šuster, a member of the budget council, emphasized that Slovakia was unprepared for the war in Iran, highlighting the country's failure to diversify its transportation routes. He noted that Slovakia had recently drawn heavily on its emergency oil reserves, having done so just a month ago due to an unnecessary conflict that poses risks to energy supplies and economic stability.