Donald Trump has reached out to Kurdish leaders to offer air support and additional assistance for their offensive against Iran. This development could represent a significant shift in the ongoing conflict, which has so far mostly been conducted from the air. The situation is particularly complicated as the Kurds are a stateless nation, with approximately 40 million individuals spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, each of which has various factions vying for either independence or autonomy and sometimes fighting among themselves.

In Iraq's Kurdish region, several Iranian Kurdish groups in exile are poised for involvement, yet their numbers are limited—maxing out at around 10,000 fighters, which pales in comparison to Iran's nearly one million troops. Despite enjoying a degree of autonomy and relative prosperity, the Kurdish forces in Iraq are hesitant to engage in a conflict with such a powerful neighbor. Historical patterns of US support have also raised concerns among the Kurds, notably affecting Syrian Kurds who, after receiving American backing against ISIS, found themselves abandoned when a new regime arose in Damascus.

This complex web of alliances and historical grievances continues to shape the region's geopolitical landscape. The prospect of renewed US involvement in support of Kurdish forces against Iran carries substantial risks and implications, not only for the Kurdish communities but also for the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical reality. The effectiveness and sustainability of such support are crucial to consider, given the Kurds' past experiences and their precarious position amidst ongoing regional tensions.