Mar 12 • 14:39 UTC 🇬🇷 Greece Naftemporiki

"The US will leave, Iran will stay": Why Trump's allies in the Gulf resist pressure to enter the war

Gulf states are reluctant to join the US and Israel in the conflict with Iran despite receiving numerous attacks from Iranian forces.

Gulf states are currently caught in a complex dilemma regarding their involvement in the conflict against Iran, as they weigh the necessity of maintaining a strong alliance with the United States against the need to coexist with Iran post-conflict. Despite ongoing attacks from Iran, these countries are wary of deepening their military involvement, understanding that cooperation with the US could aggravate their relations with a neighbor that they will continue to deal with regardless of the war's outcome. Furthermore, Iranian military strategy has them targeting Arab states in the region significantly, with approximately 40% of their strike capabilities directed toward Israel and a considerable portion aimed at Gulf nations.

Since the onset of the conflict, Gulf states have absorbed over 2,000 missile and drone attacks attributed to Iranian forces, transforming the region into a pivotal arena in the ongoing struggle. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have emphasized that their military might has been purposely directed towards both adversarial targets and those of their Arab neighbors, pointing toward a calculated effort to create divisions amongst the Gulf states and their ally, the United States. This has led to a complicated geopolitical landscape where allegiance to the US could pose a threat to regional stability, as these nations grapple with how to respond to ongoing threats without compromising their security and diplomatic considerations for the future.

The situation underscores the precarious balance these Gulf nations must maintain as they navigate the pressures from their traditional ally while also managing the risk of escalating tensions with Iran. Their hesitance to enter the war alongside the US and Israel reflects an understanding that long-term regional dynamics are at play, potentially reshaping the Middle East's security framework well beyond the current conflict.

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