As hostilities escalate between the United States, Israel, and Iran, key maritime trade routes in the Middle East are under increasing threat. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for global oil transportation, experts have identified Kharg Island and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait as critical strategic points likely to influence the war's dynamics. Kharg Island, approximately 25-43 kilometers away from mainland Iran, serves as the terminal for pipelines from the country's midwestern oil fields and is responsible for 90% of Iran's oil exports, making it a target of immense international interest.

Despite thousands of airstrikes targeting Iranian sites by US and Israeli forces since the conflict's escalation, Kharg Island has so far remained untouched, likely due to fears of destabilizing the global oil market. Market analysts warn that an attack on Kharg could trigger a significant spike in oil prices, potentially raising rates from $120 to $150 a barrel. The Biden administration has considered capturing Kharg Island to weaken Iran's economy, but concerns about extensive repercussions—including market shocks and social unrest in Iran—are complicating this decision, placing the US in a strategic catch-22.

Another critical point raised is the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which accounts for about 10% of global maritime oil transport and acts as a connector between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Middle Eastern security analysts warn that further developments could see increased activities from Iran-aligned entities such as the Houthis in Yemen, adding another layer of complexity to the regional security environment. Overall, both locations are pivotal in determining the future course of this high-stakes conflict.