‘Chipflation’ Triggered by AI Will Last at Least Another Year... China's Rise in Legacy Memory
The surge in memory semiconductor prices driven by AI investments is expected to continue for at least another year, with notable competition from Chinese firms in the legacy memory market.
The rapid rise in investment towards artificial intelligence technology has sparked a significant increase in memory semiconductor prices since last year, referred to as 'chipflation.' This trend is projected to persist for at least another year, according to market research firm Counterpoint Research. As global semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix focus on competing in high bandwidth memory markets, Chinese companies are gaining ground in the legacy memory semiconductor space used in gaming consoles, computers, and smartphones. The escalating demand for general-purpose memory, driven by expanded investments in AI and large-scale data centers, is propelling this growth in memory prices.
Recently, Counterpoint Research indicated that the price of DRAM and NAND flash memory has soared by an estimated 50% and 90%, respectively, in the first quarter of this year. This increase has been particularly noticeable since the Chinese New Year, highlighting the supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market. Despite domestic firms like Samsung and SK Hynix expanding their production capabilities, including building new factories in Texas and Cheongju, South Korea, supply has yet to catch up with burgeoning demand. This has led to a market reconfiguration favoring suppliers, which is likely to keep prices elevated.
While Korean semiconductor manufacturers are currently benefiting from rising prices due to chipflation, the rapid advancement of Chinese firms poses a significant challenge. According to the insights from Counterpoint's team leader, domestic companies are primarily competing on the basis of high bandwidth memory and quality. However, in the realm of general-purpose and legacy memory, Chinese competitors are quickly closing the gap, leveraging substantial government subsidies and technological advancements which could alter the competitive landscape in the near future.