Kazuto Suzuki, a leading expert on economic security, predicts a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, warning of instability in the Global South and anticipating a comeback for Russia. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for Japan, as over 80 percent of its oil imports pass through this chokepoint. Historically, the most feared scenario was an escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, with the United States acting as a mediator. However, with the recent U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran, the geopolitics have drastically changed, leaving Iran isolated on the global stage.

The article emphasizes the uncertain path ahead, as Israel initiated military conflicts and the only nation that could potentially intervene is the United States. However, even if the U.S. were to withdraw its attacks, Israel has the capability to continue its military actions independently. This situation raises critical questions about how various countries will react, especially those heavily reliant on oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Suzuki's insights suggest that while this conflict may create challenges for many, it may inadvertently benefit Russia and the United States, as they could strengthen their strategic positions amidst the chaos.

Overall, the commentary provides a thought-provoking analysis of the ongoing crisis, suggesting that while immediate consequences may appear dire for nations in the Global South, major powers like Russia and the U.S. could find opportunities to assert their influence and secure their interests in a newly volatile global landscape.