An expert from Charles University argues in an interview that the expectation of a swift regime change in Iran following U.S. bombardment is overly naive, emphasizing the strong hold of the Revolutionary Guards and structural control over key institutions in the country.
The notion held by U.S. President Donald Trump that the Iranian regime would collapse following bombing campaigns is described as naive by Zuzana Kříhová, an expert on Iran from Charles University, during an interview with Zuzana Tvarůžková. She explains that recent events, including the death of Ali Khamenei, were celebrated by some Iranians but were quickly overshadowed by sorrow due to ongoing bombings, indicating a complex and possibly shifting public opinion in Iran that does not necessarily favor immediate regime change.
Kříhová notes that the current level of bombardment in Iran is significantly stronger than during last year’s so-called twelve-day war with Israel. She emphasizes the deep-rooted structures in Iran where all key institutions ultimately answer to the Supreme Leader. This power dynamic makes rapid changes unlikely and suggests that the regime is resilient and capable of enduring external pressures, as the Supreme Leader controls the military, judiciary, and media, answerable only to God, which complicates any expectation of a swift resolution to the challenges they face.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a pivotal role in maintaining the regime's grip on power, with a vast infrastructure, which further cements their influence in the political and military landscape of Iran. Given these complexities, Kříhová stresses that the prospect of regime change will likely be accompanied by chaos rather than a smooth transition, reinforcing the enduring nature of the current Iranian leadership despite external challenges.
