An expert explains why the parties involved in the conflict do not wish to formally close the Strait of Hormuz despite a significant reduction in trade traffic since the outbreak of war.
Since the outbreak of war on February 28, the number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to less than a handful per day, compared to an average of 140 vessels during normal circumstances. Currently, around 200-300 commercial vessels, including oil tankers and cargo ships, are anchored on both sides of the strait. This situation is exacerbated by over 700 non-Iranian tankers in the region, which are effectively waiting to see how the situation unfolds, based on data from MarineTraffic.
No party has officially declared the strait closed, which is considered international waters. According to Johan Granholm, a teacher at the Swedish Defence University, the decisions made by insurance companies largely dictate how maritime operations proceed. He suggests that the lack of a formal declaration to close the strait is steeped in speculation, indicating that both sides are maintaining a certain façade in the ongoing conflict.
Granholm posits that Iran, in particular, may prefer to be viewed as the 'good guys' by avoiding actions that might escalate into open warfare. Their interests seemingly lie in maintaining a modicum of normalcy and avoiding military engagements, which could deteriorate their reputation and economic stability further. Overall, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious, as the dynamics of international shipping are profoundly affected by the ongoing tensions.
