A recent Datafolha poll indicates that Fernando Haddad (PT) and Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) are leading the Senate race in São Paulo. The survey shows that potential candidates from the progressive field are outperforming those from the right. This poll comes as Haddad announced his decision to leave his position as the Minister of Finance to run for Governor of São Paulo.

In the upcoming 2026 elections, voters will select two senators, as two-thirds of the Senate will be renewed. The Datafolha survey explored two different scenarios with ten possible candidates in each. In the first scenario, without Alckmin, Haddad leads the intentions to vote with 30%, followed closely by other prominent figures from Lula's government, including Simone Tebet (MDB) at 25%, Márcio França (PSB) at 20%, Marina Silva (Rede) at 18%, and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) at 14%.

Among the right-wing pre-candidates, the most prominent is federal deputy Guilherme Derrite (PP), who is currently polling at 14%. The results highlight a significant lead for Haddad and suggest an ongoing preference among voters for progressive candidates as the election approaches, setting a competitive stage for the upcoming political battles in São Paulo.