The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (SUPO) has released a statement indicating that while the large-scale war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, is likely to continue in the immediate future, its eventual conclusion could allow Russia to redirect its military and intelligence resources elsewhere. Finland, which shares a 1,340 km border with Russia, has shifted away from its decades-long military non-alignment policy and joined NATO in April 2023 as a response to the invasion, a move that has angered the Kremlin.

According to SUPO, Russian intelligence capabilities in Europe have been impacted by the ongoing conflict, and as the war concludes, Moscow is expected to focus on rebuilding these capabilities. The report underscores that Russian intelligence and influence operations currently tied to the war in Ukraine are likely to become available for deployment in other regions, particularly highlighting the ongoing strategic significance of Finland as a NATO member situated between the Baltic Sea and the Arctic region.

Moreover, the director of SUPO, Juha Martelius, warned that if relations between Europe and Russia improve post-conflict, the variety of intelligence threats facing Finland could increase. He emphasized that Russia's methods of operations could evolve to include contemporary techniques that have proven effective in the current geopolitical landscape, adding a new layer of complexity to Finland's national security considerations.