The challenge of the US and China for Iranian oil: what the Iraqi model is and why it worries Beijing
The article discusses the strategic competition between the US and China over Iranian oil and how this impacts China's energy security.
In 2025, China relied heavily on oil imports from various countries, sourcing 48% from vessels leaving the Strait of Hormuz, not including covert purchases of Iranian crude oil under sanctions. Key suppliers for China included Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Iraq, and Kuwait. Although not posing an immediate threat, Beijing has robust strategic reserves that are designed for a complete autonomy span of 200 days, compared to the 60 days maximum for Western countries. This energy dynamic is fundamentally perceived as a strategic challenge initiated by Donald Trump.
The conflict over Iran's oil resources is increasingly viewed as a subtle battle for the future of China, as the US progresses systematically with its aggressive strategies towards Iranian assets. The article draws parallels with the US military campaign in Iraq in 2003, suggesting that the approach towards Iran mirrors that of systematic bombardments and naval operations aimed at striking down Tehran's capabilities. Such a strategy is emblematic of a larger geopolitical contest faced not only by Iran but also involving China's growing energy demands.
As the US continues its operations around Iranian oil infrastructure, China must navigate the implications for its energy security and international relations. The ongoing tension over Iranian oil not only raises concerns for Beijing about its energy imports but also reflects a competition for influence in the region amid shifting global alliances. This evolving situation emphasizes the need for China to adapt its strategies in response to US policies and the potential impact on its access to crucial energy resources.