The article reflects on historical military interventions in the Middle East, highlighting the long-term consequences and failures observed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. It discusses how in Afghanistan, decades of conflict led to the unexpected re-emergence of the Taliban, while the Iraq War resulted in the rise of the Islamic State and a surge in violence. In Libya, NATO interventions initially toppled Muammar Gaddafi but resulted in ongoing chaos and division within the country.

Focusing on the current situation in Iran, the article suggests that military actions by Israel and the US could lead to a swift regime change but warns against the assumption that this would bring peace or stability. Citing the quick replacement of one regime figure by another in the aftermath of these attacks, the piece raises skepticism about the actual effectiveness of these military strategies. It implies that the history of conflicts indicates a potential for negative repercussions rather than the desired outcomes.

Ultimately, the author, Bernd Dörries, argues that military interventions are unlikely to bring about positive change in Iran, mirroring the troubling patterns seen in previous conflicts in the region. The commentary presents a cautionary view on the use of military force in shaping political landscapes, suggesting that such actions often lead to unintended and detrimental consequences for the affected nations and their people.