The article examines the recent decline in Argentina's country risk rate, which is often interpreted as a sign that financial problems are subsiding. Despite achieving two years of fiscal surplus and making significant improvements to the Central Bank's balance sheet, the risk rate remains high, currently at 575 points, down from 1,400 months ago, but still not low enough to issue significant debt at reasonable rates. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Kuznets might argue that what works in other countries does not apply in Argentina, highlighting the unique challenges the country faces.

The public external debt calendar is daunting, with Argentina expected to face debt repayments of about $18 billion by 2026, increasing to $28 billion in 2027 and 2028. Out of these amounts, only between $8 billion and $10 billion will come from the market, raising concerns about the government's ability to meet these obligations without destabilizing economic conditions. Moreover, payments from the private sector and provincial debts add further stress to the overall debt landscape.

Finally, the article touches upon external factors, such as the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which could further complicate the situation for Argentina's economy. Overall, while there are indications of improvement, the article suggests that more substantial reform and stable economic conditions are necessary for Argentina to achieve sustainable debt levels and regain investor confidence.