A study by DHL and the Stern School of Business indicates that global merchandise traffic will grow by approximately 2.6% annually until 2029, fueled by the global race for AI development and despite geopolitical tensions.
A new study by DHL and the Stern School of Business has highlighted the remarkable growth in global trade, predicting an increase of about 2.6% per year until 2029. This growth is largely attributed to the acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure development, which has become a driving force in the global economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite the rise in global trade, the report also sheds light on the decoupling trends between the United States and China, indicating that bilateral trade between these two economic giants has dropped to nearly 2% of total global trade in 2025—marking the lowest level in a decade.
The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, which has been assessing globalization since 2011 through various flows of trade, capital, information, and people, reveals that while the interconnections between global economies remain strong, the divergence in trade policies and economic relationships between major powers poses a challenge. The decoupling of the U.S. and China could reshape global trade patterns, as both nations explore new markets and adapt to changing international conditions. This reconfiguration includes anticipating the effects of U.S. tariffs and the strategic pivoting of Chinese exports toward emerging markets.
In summary, while the overall momentum in global trade continues robustly, the implications of these geopolitical shifts cannot be ignored. The AI race is not only driving economic growth but also influencing international relations and trade dynamics. Stakeholders in the global market must navigate these complexities to leverage the opportunities while managing the risks associated with global trade amidst such geopolitical uncertainties.
