In a recent analysis, economist Petr Bartoň discussed the strategic timing of the conflict in Iran, suggesting that the planners of the war effectively chose to initiate hostilities at the end of winter. This timing is crucial as it allows for minimized impact on global gas consumption, especially since a significant portion of the world's gas supply, about 20%, comes from the Persian Gulf. Immediately following the outbreak of the conflict, gas prices surged, resulting in consumers scrambling to secure shipments that were en route, thus exacerbating the market's volatility.

Bartoň highlighted the geographical distribution of gas consumption, revealing that around 70% or more of the global demand occurs in the Northern Hemisphere, where seasonal changes significantly affect consumption rates. The economist noted that beginning a conflict in spring is strategically beneficial because it coincides with a period of reduced gas demand in many parts of the world. He emphasized that while European countries will need to replenish their gas storage for the upcoming winter, the exact timing of these purchases is not as critical as it may seem, suggesting some flexibility for buyers in Europe in terms of when they acquire gas supplies.

Despite the tactics of war planning, Bartoň predicts that gas prices will likely remain elevated in the future due to increased risks of subsequent conflicts. Each new war escalates concerns about stability in gas supply chains, leading to lasting effects on market prices. This situation indicates a trend where energy prices will continue to be influenced by geopolitical tensions, highlighting the broader implications for consumers and economies worldwide.