Nikita Smaguine, a specialist in Middle Eastern affairs and former correspondent for TASS in Tehran, provides insights on how the conflict in Iran may yield immediate advantages for Russia, particularly in the oil market. As hostilities escalate, he notes that oil prices are likely to increase, benefiting Russia financially while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This situation presents an opportunity for Russia to bolster its budget through higher energy prices.

However, Smaguine also highlights significant long-term risks. He argues that if the Islamic Republic of Iran were to fall, the resultant new government could adopt an anti-Russian stance, altering the dynamics of regional influence. This possibility poses a complex challenge for Moscow as it weighs immediate fiscal benefits against potential geopolitical losses in the Middle East, traditionally viewed as a sphere of influence for Russia.

In essence, while the current conflict might seem advantageous for Russia in the short term, the potential geopolitical shifts resulting from a change in Iran's regime could require a reevaluation of Russian policy and strategy in the region. Such changes would illustrate the precarious balance that Russia must maintain as it navigates its relations with both Iran and other global powers involved in the Middle East.