In an interview, Xavier Durand, the CEO of Coface, an insurance credit company, analyzes the economic shocks stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran, highlighting the impact on the global economy. He points out that while the initial shock has been felt globally, its current effects remain relatively localized to the Persian Gulf region. The immediate disruption in transportation and economic activities in this area is evident, yet he reassures that a temporary spike in oil prices, even if it persists for weeks, will not significantly affect the broader global economy.

Durand notes that oil prices had previously plummeted to low levels, with Brent crude around $60 per barrel in early 2026, which contextualizes the current price fluctuations against a backdrop of over 20% inflation since 2019. He elaborates that while the situation is precarious, it is crucial to monitor how long any potential blockage of the Strait could last, emphasizing that a blockade extending beyond two to three months could lead to a significant crisis in global energy supply, affecting trade and market stability far beyond the immediate region.

The discussion also indicates a growing concern over regional security and the implications for international markets. As the confrontation escalates, countries reliant on oil exports and imports from this region might need to prepare for gradual adjustments to their energy strategies, potentially leading to a reevaluation of energy dependencies and emergency measures to mitigate the effects of sustained disruptions in one of the world’s most strategic waterways.