The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) has assessed that the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Iran, pose a 'very high risk' to the nation's fertilizer sector. According to technical notes obtained by Folha, the situation could lead to serious consequences, including potential shortages and rising domestic prices for fertilizers as Brazil approaches its next planting season in the second half of the year. These insights were shared in urgent correspondence to the ministry's executive secretary, Irajá Lacerda.

The ministry's technical evaluation emphasizes that the current geopolitical climate exposes Brazil to significant threats to fertilizer supply and price stability. The notes warn that the unfolding conflict in Iran, coupled with China's imposed restrictions on fertilizer exports, could impact logistics and raw material costs. This precarious position could have immediate ramifications as the nation prepares for the 2026/2027 cropping season, highlighting the interconnectedness of global markets.

In light of these developments, the ministry's advisory team indicates a dual-front crisis on the horizon, which might jeopardize food security and agricultural productivity in Brazil. The risk factors include not only reduced availability of essential fertilizers but also escalating prices driven by the geopolitical landscape. As Brazil navigates these challenges, close monitoring of international developments and proactive measures will be essential to mitigate potential adverse effects on the agricultural sector.