The Lebanese political analyst Hassan Al-Dar suggests that Lebanon has not transformed into a central battleground in the ongoing regional war, even as military escalations between Israel and Hezbollah intensify. He asserts that the core of the conflict remains in Iran, where the broader confrontation with the United States and Israel is taking place. Al-Dar explains that Hezbollah views recent regional developments as an opportunity to alter the balance of power against Israel, gearing up for a situation that could arise post-ceasefire, originally established on November 27, 2024, which he believes is no longer tenable due to continued Israeli actions.

According to Al-Dar, Hezbollah's engagement in the conflict comes roughly 15 months after the ceasefire agreement, which was expected to lead to Lebanese state intervention in securing borders and maintaining peace. However, he argues that Israel has failed to comply with the agreement's terms, continuing its incursions into Lebanese territory. This non-compliance has prompted Hezbollah to take a more active role in confrontations, influencing the overall security landscape of the region.

In analyzing the current state of the war, Al-Dar reaffirms that Iran remains the principal arena for regional confrontation, with Lebanon appearing as a secondary front for Israel at this stage. He notes that Israel’s preoccupation with broader conflicts, particularly concerning Iran and its allies, plays a significant role in how Lebanon is strategically viewed in the ongoing hostilities.