The article explores the ramifications of Donald Trump's trade war which began on April 2, 2025, with the implementation of a universal tariff that raised average rates from 2.4% to 14.8–16.9%. Despite initial expectations that the tariffs would drastically alter global trade dynamics, a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics pointed out that the trade patterns among the 19 major trading partners of the US remained largely stable. This suggests that global trade systems may maintain their structure despite the intensified tariff wars.

The report highlights that for nine of the 19 countries, the trade share with the US did not fluctuate by more than 1 percentage point. Even countries like Brazil, which encountered a 40% tariff increase, saw minimal declines in trade levels, with a decrease of only 0.2 percentage points. Similarly, South Korea's trade levels with the US also held up better than projected, with only a 0.3 percentage point dip in bilateral trade. This stability raises questions about the resilience of global trade relationships in the context of aggressive tariff policies.

As the global trading landscape remains turbulent, the article prompts a discussion on whether current trade flows will endure the challenges posed by protectionist tendencies. The analysis calls into question the long-term effectiveness of tariff strategies and the possibility of these imposed barriers being overcome by established trade partnerships and agreements.