An Iranian expert argues that the US and Israeli military strikes against Iran may yield immediate tactical gains, but the overthrow of the Iranian regime is improbable due to its complex nature.
In a recent article, Iranian expert Ali Faez critiques the ongoing military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran, suggesting that these actions are based on flawed assumptions about the Iranian regime. Faez argues that Western decision-makers often perceive Iran as a rigid theocratic regime willing to incur costs or as a fragile dictatorship that could fall under strong military pressure. However, he contends that the reality of the Iranian political system is much more complex and resilient than these simplified views suggest.
Faez, who serves as a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, explains that the aerial strikes initiated on the 28th of last month have specifically targeted Iran's air defenses, missile production facilities, military infrastructure, and high-ranking military leaders in an effort to disrupt decision-making processes in Tehran. He notes that while these military operations have successfully achieved certain tactical objectives, making the airspace more accessible for subsequent strikes, such tactical success does not equate to a definitive strategic victory.
Furthermore, Faez asserts that the strategic landscape is more nuanced; despite the effective military strikes, the foundational structure of the Iranian government remains intact and has demonstrated a remarkable capability to withstand external pressures. Hence, while there may be immediate military advantages in the conflict, Faez warns of the oversimplification that leads to assumptions about the potential for regime change in Iran.
