As the referendum on justice reform in Italy draws near, the silence from polling institutions has sparked interpretations and doubts among analysts. Antonio Noto, the director of a major polling institute, commented that although polls are now suspended, the real contest is just beginning, particularly in the next two weeks leading up to the vote. Recently released data has shown significant divergence among different polling agencies, which has led some experts to question the reliability of these numbers.

The latest poll by Youtrend for SkyTg24 predicts a loss for the pro-reform 'Yes' camp, suggesting that if voter turnout reaches 57.3%, the 'No' votes would be at 51.4% compared to 48.6% for 'Yes'. This prediction contrasts sharply with other recent surveys, such as one by Noto's own agency, which indicated a slight lead for 'Yes' at 51.5% over 'No' at 48.5%. Furthermore, a separate survey conducted by the Piepoli Institute among entrepreneurs showed an even stronger support for 'Yes', with 57% favoring the reform.

Noto expressed skepticism regarding the validity of these conflicting results, emphasizing that the ongoing political dynamics could lead to shifts in voter sentiment as the referendum approaches. He stated that the statistics presented by different polls may serve only as a snapshot rather than indicating an absolute outcome. With the referendum set to be a pivotal moment for Italy's judicial landscape, the discrepancies in polling raise concerns over what messages potential voters may receive and how it might affect participation in the referendum.