Mar 6 • 17:32 UTC 🇵🇱 Poland Rzeczpospolita

New NBP Projection: Inflation on Target, GDP Up 3-4% by 2028

The NBP's latest projection indicates that inflation in Poland will remain close to the targeted rate of 2.5% until the end of 2028, with GDP expected to rise by 3-4%.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) released its latest projections, stating that inflation is expected to stay near the target rate of 2.5% throughout the forecast horizon until 2028. The central path of the forecast shows that average inflation will fluctuate within a narrow range of 2.2% to 2.5% year-on-year, with specific predictions of 2.3% for this year, 2.4% for the next year, and returning to 2.3% by 2028. This consistent forecast reflects ongoing economic stability as the country navigates inflationary pressures.

During a press conference, NBP President Adam Glapiński explained that the shape of this projection is largely a result of the recent interest rate cuts made by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). Glapiński emphasized that these projections not only align with the central bank's primary mandate of maintaining price stability but also suggest a supportive stance towards government economic policies. This approach includes a contemplation of providing unusually high profits derived from “monetizing” reserve earnings, particularly from gold reserves.

Moreover, in response to the broader European economic context, the NBP is developing a project termed the 'Polish SAFE 0%' aimed at potentially enhancing economic stability. This initiative reflects the bank's proactive stance to respond to ongoing challenges in the European economy while supporting domestic growth objectives, including the anticipated rise in GDP amid inflation containment efforts. The implications of these forecasts bear significant relevance for Polish economic policy and the general public's expectations regarding living costs and economic wellbeing in the coming years.

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