Lithuanian military intelligence identifies when Russia would be able to start a war against the Baltic states
Lithuanian military intelligence reports potential timelines for Russia's capability to initiate conflict in the Baltic region under various scenarios related to the Ukraine war.
The Lithuanian State Security Department (VSD) and military intelligence agency have released a report highlighting multiple scenarios regarding Russia's potential military actions towards the Baltic states. The analysis suggests that if Russia were to sign a peace agreement with Ukraine and Western sanctions were lifted, it could prepare for a limited conflict in the Baltic Sea region in the near future, specifically within one to two years. Conversely, if temporary ceasefires were declared while Western pressure on Moscow continued, such preparations could take three to five years. In a prolonged conflict scenario, where the war in Ukraine continues, Russia might take six to ten years to prepare for a limited confrontation in the region.